When it comes to reference checking, I’ve noticed many managers seem to default to what I’ve dubbed “The Crystal Ball Approach” to getting information. This method essentially asks references to predict the future by answering questions like:

• “How well do you think Joe would fit with this position in our company?”
• “With the right training, do you think Joe could do ________________ (usually a specific part of the job)?”
• “Do you think Joe would enjoy being a part of a team like ours?”

These are all pretty much some version of the ultimate question they want answered: “Do you think if I hire Joe he’ll be successful in this job?”

So what’s wrong with “The Crystal Ball Approach”? It yields bad information almost every time.

Why?

First of all, it’s unfair to references. Even though they may know your candidate really well, in most cases they don’t know you or your company. They don’t know what kind of training you’re going to provide, they don’t understand your culture and team dynamics and, most importantly, they don’t know whether you’re a great manager or a terrible one. All of these issues will have a huge impact on whether or not any candidate you hire is successful.

Second, very few references are willing to go on record as giving a “thumbs down” when asked these types of questions. Most realize a negative response may cost the candidate the opportunity, so they usually give vague, noncommittal answers to avoid going on record with more specific comments.

In order to avoid these pitfalls, let’s look at a better way to frame your reference questions. As a general rule, focus on finding out about what the candidate has done, not what they would do. History is factual and doesn’t require the reference to speculate. Therefore, asking questions about the candidate’s past usually provides much more reliable feedback.

What topics should you cover? Ask about your candidate’s most prominent strengths, what parts of his previous jobs he seemed to enjoy most — what motivated him or drove him. Ask about what management style he responded to best and which types of people he worked with most effectively. Get the reference to talk about your candidate’s most significant contributions to the company and/or the team. Asking about how the candidate grew or improved over time is also a good topic to address.

But here’s the important part: While the references are talking, take their information and compare it to the opportunity you’d be offering the candidate. Are they describing a person who’s going to fit with your open position? Someone whose history is consistent with what his future with you would hold?

Or is what you’re hearing at odds with what you need? Do you see any clues that this individual’s past patterns, which will probably repeat themselves, will conflict with your requirements?

Next time you’re checking references, keep in mind the difference between asking about a candidate’s past versus his or her future. And remember that history is a more accurate predictor than that crystal ball will ever be.

Janna Mansker is vice president of client services for Berke, a human resources consulting firm, where she leads the company’s education initiatives and advocates for clients. She can be reached at janna@berkegroup.com.