Car sales are up, apartment vacancies down, and a few builders are doing well.
I don't get much good news talking to builders across the country, but here and there, I do see signs that some might call "light at the end of the tunnel” — although I hesitate to use that term because I've heard the one about the oncoming train!
For one thing, I've always thought there are a lot of parallels between the auto industry and housing. After all, those are the two biggest ticket consumer purchases most people ever make. And right now, the auto makers are doing well. In March, U.S. car sales were up 17 percent over the same month a year ago. Market research firm Autodata Corp. reported recently that 1,246,623 new cars and light trucks sold last month, putting the sales rate up to 13.1 million vehicles a year. That's the sixth month in a row the annualized sales rate has stayed above 12 million cars, although it was down slightly from February's level of 13.4 million. My guess is that a lot of peple are doing what I did last fall, getting rid of an old gas-guzzler in favor of a more fuel-efficient car because of the trend line on gas prices. And it's not just me that sees that trend. GM's top sales analyst, Don Johnson, told The Wall Street Journal recently, "We are starting to see a shift to compact cars, but consumers are not delaying purchases. That's really good news."
It ought to be good news for builders, as well, especially if you're building energy-efficient houses. How long before people figure out that a fuel-efficient house is just as important as a car that's easy on gas?
Apartments are filling up, which could be a sign of pent-up housing demand. Vacancies in apartment buildings fell to the lowest level in more than two years in the first quarter this year, and that has landlords scaling back on freebies and increasing rents. "You don't often see occupancy and rents increasing at the same time," REIT analyst Rich Anderson of BMO Capital Markets told The Wall Street Journal. "It's a great fundamental picture today."
And finally, right in my backyard in Sarasota, Fla., builder Pat Neal (Neal Communities) had his best sales month (in March) since February of 2005. Neal's director of sales, David Hunihan, tells me he booked 52 sales for the month, 45 net, at an average price of $263,900, and most of those were second home sales to snowbirds visiting Southwest Florida from up north. So the spring selling season is alive and well for at least one Florida builder. "With all the talk of foreclosures, what most people don't realize is that supply is down in Sarasota and Manatee Counties," says Hunihan. "We're down to a four-month supply of used homes and two-month supply of new homes in Manatee," he says.
Add that conversation to the constant flow of press releases into my e-mail detailing land purchases by public builders and Canadians scooping up deals around Florida, and you begin to see that there really are signs the market is coming back. Now, if private American builders start to buy land with financing from anywhere, then I'll really get excited!
