Sat 19 May 2:22am CDT
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The Detroit housing market is revving up; does that hint we may be sitting on top of a housing market volcano that's ready to blow, all across America?

The recent earthquake in central Oklahoma got me wondering if a mountain range is about to pop out of the plains in that vicinity. And that idle, bemused, speculation triggered another line of thought: Do the scattered housing market rebounds in odd places like Florida and Michigan signal that we are, in fact, sitting ontop a smoking cauldron of pent-up demand for new housing, another Mt. St. Helens, ready to explode?

In the feature report we recently published on Southwest Florida builder Pat Neal's incredible success at Central Park at Lakewood Ranch (in Manatee County), we quoted Neal on his expectation that this winter's selling season in Florida will be a doozie because Baby Boomers have decided that they've waited long enough, and they're not going to put off their Florida retirement any longer. Now, on top of that, comes the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index, showing some strength in Detroit residential real estate values, even though the stabilization comes at price levels comparable to 1995 and 43 percent below the peak. While Michigan's unemployment rate (11 percent) remains higher than the national average, it has fallen 1.5 percent since July of 2010, a larger percentage drop than in all but three other states.

Housing prices in Metro Detroit have ticked up after years in freefall, as more young buyers spot bargains in the city and in the suburbs. Their willingness to buy is probably driven by the recent successes of America's Big Three automakers, who are suddenly looking strong in their competition with foreign rivals, especially Japanese titans Toyota and Honda. GM and Ford are reporting strong profits and better than expected sales. Chrysler is even embracing Detroit in its latest ad campaign.

What's happening in Southwest Florida and Southeast Michigan are not isolated instances of economic growth amid the doom and gloom of a stagnating national economy. They are the first signs of a spring that may bloom this winter. The snowbirds buying houses in Florida are flying in from all over the country, ready to invest their money in their retirement dreams. That's really not so different from the investment decisions being made by first-time home buyers in Detroit, who base their optimism on car sales that are happening all over the country. If cars are selling everywhere, can houses be far behind?

It's always darkest before the dawn, and I think we're on the cusp of a housing boom, if Washington will just get out of the way and let it happen!

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moucon's picture
moucon
Sat 21 Apr 12:20pm
Localized recovery due to pent-up demand- great! An "eruption"? I sure hope not. Haven't we learned anything from "booms" that eventually "blow up" leaving things in shambles? The last thing our industry needs is another influx of clueless 'builder' start-ups responding to an 'eruption' - especially not in Florida, where the last time around, every time you turned around "two guys in a pickup truck" were able to leap from 2 to 200 units/yr - without putting any of the systems in place necessary to take care of their buyers. Nobody was protecting the buyer - building departments couldn't keep up - Realtors were more than happy to push whatever junk was popping up, ignoring the $10 leaking vinyl windows and Chinese drywall. That's not what we need. What we do need is planned, controlled growth, buyers who can really afford their purchases (and are not looking for a quick 'flip' buck), and builders who understand management best practices and who also are in it for the long haul.